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- i'm getting speed test results in Manhattan that are twice as fast as verizon's hypothetical ideal situation maximum evdo speeds
- I'm curious whether they are privy to the contract(s) between Apple and ATT.
If not, I don't understand how there is any firm basis for any guesses. Anybody care to speculate as to the basis for the estimate? And could that basis be reliable absent a detailed knowlege of the contracts that the two operate under? - Well, either they are consulting their magic eight ball or a Ouija board.
- Quote:Originally Posted by iGenius
I'm curious whether they are privy to the contract(s) between Apple and ATT.
If not, I don't understand how there is any firm basis for any guesses. Anybody care to speculate as to the basis for the estimate? And could that basis be reliable absent a detailed knowlege of the contracts that the two operate under?
I doubt they are privy to the AT&T/Apple contract.
They list the major scenarios and took a guess. That's why they're only 75% certain, not 100%. They're just saying, 'of all these potential avenues, this one looks the most likely.' Nothing more. - Somebody should tell this analyst that his 60-page report is worth less than a roll of toilet paper.
Probability analysis ?? It's known as 'Garbage in, garbage out.' LOL.
Steve will never deal with Verizon. When he first came to them for a deal, they turned him down. Now, it's 'I'll destroy you, Verizon.' - While I understand the arguments against a CDMA/Verizon iPhone, there is one big one for it even if it means extra expense and overhead for Apple. The longer Apple waits to deploy a CDMA iPhone, the longer Android has to establish a foothold with Verizon. Think about the iPod/iTunes 'lock-in' everyone complained about when music had DRM. You couldn't switch to a non-Apple music player because none of the music you purchased would work on it.
The longer Android goes unopposed on Verizon's network, the more Android phones/apps people will buy. Then if/when the iPhone becomes available on Verizon, people with an investment in Android software will be less likely to switch.
Similarly, if I have an Android phone on Verizon and I'm contemplating getting an iPad, I can't use the same applications for both devices. Any application (or type of application) I wanted to use on both devices I'd have to purchase twice. So it could even impact sales of iPads to non-ATT customers.
The sooner Apple can establish an iPhone OS ecosystem on Verizon, it will be easier to nip Android in the bud before it gets too much traction. - Quote:Originally Posted by AppleGreen
Somebody should tell this analyst that his 60-page report is worth less than a roll of toilet paper.
Probability analysis ?? It's known as 'Garbage in, garbage out.' LOL.
Steve will never deal with Verizon. When he first came to them for a deal, they turned him down. Now, it's 'I'll destroy you, Verizon.'
Apple doesn't have the power to destroy Verizon. Even if ATT became the #1 carrier in the US which isn't going to happen thats hardly destruction.
Over several decades Apple has never been powerful enough to put any major company out of business. - Quote:Originally Posted by AppleGreen
Somebody should tell this analyst that his 60-page report is worth less than a roll of toilet paper.
Probability analysis ?? It's known as 'Garbage in, garbage out.' LOL.
Steve will never deal with Verizon. When he first came to them for a deal, they turned him down. Now, it's 'I'll destroy you, Verizon.'
-------------
Yes, they will never deal with Verizon. And they will never deal with Intel. There will never be an Intel chip in a Mac.
And they will never deal with Microsoft.
Get it?
Dude, there are *A LOT* of people who will not use Verizon. They will get an iPhone the second it is on Verizon.
I felt like cancelling my iPhone service when my daughter had a bad car accident off a major US freeway (I-90) and her Freaking iPhone would not get service. But guess what? Her boyfriend's Verizon service was working!!! Boy, are they lucky they had access to the Verizon network!!! - I'll move to Verizon when they get the ablility to use both data and voice at the same time without having to rely on Wi-Fi and they offer noticeably lower prices than AT&T. I am not interested in saving 5 bucks.
- So, in the 3 of the 4 worlds that they monitor AT&T retains the rights to the iPhone for all of 2010 - that's awesome - any idea which sliding door we're behind??
- Quote:Originally Posted by Wiggin
While I understand the arguments against a CDMA/Verizon iPhone, there is one big on for it even if it means extra expense and overhead for Apple. The longer Apple waits to deploy a CDMA iPhone, the longer Android has to establish a foothold with Verizon. Think about the iPod/iTunes 'lock-in' everyone complained about when music had DRM. You couldn't switch to a non-Apple music player because none of the music you purchased would work on it.
The longer Android goes unopposed on Verizon's network, the more Android phones/apps people will buy. Then if/when the iPhone becomes available on Verizon, people with an investment in Android software will be less likely to switch.
Similarly, if I have an Android phone on Verizon and I'm contemplating getting an iPad, I can't use the same applications for both devices. Any application (or type of application) I wanted to use on both devices I'd have to purchase twice. So it could even impact sales of iPads to non-ATT customers.
The sooner Apple can establish an iPhone OS ecosystem on Verizon, it will be easier to nip Android in the bud before it gets too much traction.
Have the analysts ever gotten anything right? Whatever they say tends to just become fodder to get everyone riled up again.
I never thought about Apple going after Android on the Verizon network. I think that's an excellent point. Since there's really not a lot of love lost between Apple and Google these days, it would make sense for Apple to consider branching out to Verizon, or at least T-Mobile.
We don't know anything about Apple's plans for iPhone in the U.S., whether they will expand carriers or not. The only thing we know for absolute certainty is that Apple is about profit, not market share. That explains why they're happy with a sliver of the computer pie. They might not sell the volume that Dell or some other manufacturers might, but they make so much money per unit that they don't have to worry about the small margins those other companies have to survive on.
It can only be assumed that AT&T is giving Apple some really big bags of money to ensure exclusivity. If Apple can keep its profit margin on the iPhone big and healthy, there's really no compelling reason for it to go to another carrier.
On AT&T's side, they have to see whether it's really worth it to have the iPhone exclusively. Do they really want to make the massive investments to bring their data network up to Verizon's level? There's no point for them to spend additional billions of dollars to upgrade the network since it devalues the worth of an iPhone customer who doesn't pay any more for data now.
Personally, I hope that exclusivity ends this summer, but I'm not not so sure if it will come to pass in 2010 or even 2011. - 'We conclude there is only a 50% probability that it (exclusivity) ends in 2010,' Chaplin wrote. 'Next, we try to determine whether AT&T bids for another year of exclusivity if exclusivity does end in 2010. We conclude they would and they can afford to compensate Apple such that Apple would be economically indifferent.
'Our approach yields a 25% probability for this outcome. Taken together, we see a 75% probability that AT&T keeps exclusivity for another year.'
So a 50% chance they keep exclusivity and 50% they don't. If you take the 50% that they don't and give a 25% chance they re-bid, then that is only a 12.5% chance of happening (50% of 25%) to make the total chance 62.5% (50% +12.5%) not 75%.
Of course all these percentages are guesses anyway... - Quote:Originally Posted by iGenius
I'm curious whether they are privy to the contract(s) between Apple and ATT.
If not, I don't understand how there is any firm basis for any guesses. Anybody care to speculate as to the basis for the estimate? And could that basis be reliable absent a detailed knowlege of the contracts that the two operate under?
If they had access to the contract there would be no need to produce a 60 page report trying to estimate the odds of when it expires. No need to speculate about the basis of their estimates, it's stated in the article. If you want more details you can get the 60 page report, I'm sure it's quite engaging material. - No idea why they focus so much on the 'exclusivity' buzzword. Apple does not need to put anything in writing here, even without extending the exclusivity, AT&T is still the only network that makes sense for the iPhone. How many people would buy the phone without subsidy (at $600-$700) and then use it at EDGE speeds on T-Mobile?
AT&T, despite all the network complaints, still gains more subscribers than any other telco. If the upcoming 2010 iPhone update is really an 'A+' update, this, the iPad and the international gains combined might be enough for Apple. It might well get them through the time before LTE becomes relevant. If they had any interest in Verizon, they would have announced a CDMA model of the iPad. - Gotta wonder if there was a little, 'Hey we would like this pricing on iPad 3G data and you would like to continue exclusivity.'
- Quote:Originally Posted by dreyfus2
How many people would buy the phone without subsidy (at $600-$700) and then use it at EDGE speeds on T-Mobile?
if they add the 1700MHz radio T-Mobile is in without having to go outside GSM. However, I have to wonder even that will happen when the unlocked, contract free iPad doesn't even support T-Mobile's 3G network. - Apple likes doing business with AT&T because they can push them around. Whatever Jobs wants, AT&T drops to their knees and gives it to him. Why? Because if he pulls and goes with other carriers, AT&T will loose millions. Apple made them and can break them anytime they want.
I hope Steve Jobs dropped a dozen calls when he was in New York with his top hat the other day. If he could see what we go through in this area, he would know the iPhone could never be used in the Enterprise market here. - Quote:Originally Posted by extremeskater
Over several decades Apple has never been powerful enough to put any major company out of business.
What about in the early days of the PC? Do you discount Apple's role in the demise of the early competing systems like Commodore et. al? - Quote:Originally Posted by ghostface147
I'll move to Verizon when they get the ablility to use both data and voice at the same time
Why would that make you move to Verizon?